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This week’s UFC isn’t filled with a ton of star power, but the fights are competitively matched, which should create some great fireworks and entertainment. There are a few good spots on the card, and a lot of “who knows?!” Here’s what we have to say about the card.

For those of you who like to see Brandan and Santino’s faces, have a watch of the latest show on Youtube, where they break down the full card of the Amanda Ribas vs Rose Namajunas UFC Fight Night in Vegas.

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This Week’s Free Pick of the Week

Billy Q vs Youssef Zalal

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Zalal in the UFC cage. He fought out his last contract, but collected some wins and is back as a late notice replacement for Gabriel Miranda vs the always tough, Billy Quarantillo.

Billy Q is the cardio guy. The ultimate Homer Simpson, though he is significantly more skilled than a lot of other Homer’s out there. He’s in your face, and pushing the bace from bell to bell. We’ve seen him pick up wins against numerous opponents after taking a beating, as he comes on after they’ve tired out—including Alex Hernandez, a teammate of Zalal.

Billy fights well in close range and trades in the pocket and clinch. Most people don’t enjoy being that close and they try to wrestle or find space—both of which tend to tire Q’s opponents out. His offensive grappling doesn’t show much, and his takedown defense is more predicated on his opponent’s fatigue level than technique, but he does a great job limiting damage and avoiding submissions while on the ground. He’s squirrely. What he lacks in technique, he more than makes up with cardio, calmness, and straight dog.

Zalal is the complete opposite of Billy Q. He’s a Factory X product out of Colorado who moves laterally and picks his opponents apart at range. He has great footwork and snipes his straight punches from a distance and then inches out of range or at an angle. He will fire knees and he will time takedowns, which he lands well sometimes based off of timing rather than technical wrestling—though his wrestling has shown significant improvements. The issue with a lot of his grappling in the past—as is the case with a lot of Factory X fighters—is Zalal over grapples. He will stuff a takedown, and instead of standing back up, he’ll try to chase the back or hunt for a submission, which regularly ends with him on his back or on the retreat. Similarly to Billy, he’s squirrely when on his back, and hard to finish.

The fight; the bet: This should be a close fight. Billy is very hittable, and doesn’t have the greatest footwork. Zalal is very technical, but tends to win/lose in very close affairs. Expect to see Zalal take round one with movement and footwork, and then watch Billy start to bring the pressure—especially since Zalal is coming in short notice. But I don’t think we’re going to see Zalal break like most of his opponents, and Zalal is going to keep moving. If Zalal’s cardio can hold up for two rounds, he can squeak out the win via 29-28.

There are a few bets here to consider. Zalal moneyline early at plus money is a good thing, and a hedge during round two if you feel you don’t like what you see.

The over should hit. Depending on your book, find an over 1.5/2.5/goes to decision, and you should be very safe there.

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